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Thyroid cancer incidence around the Belgian nuclear sites: Surrogate exposure modelling This publication appears in: Cancer Epidemiol Authors: K. Bollaerts, M. Sonck, K. Simons, F. Sébastien, A. Poffijn, L. Van Bladel, D. Geraerts, P. Gosselin, H. Van Oyen, J. Francart and A. Van Nieuwenhuyse Volume: 39 Pages: 48-54 Publication Year: 2015
Abstract: BackgroundIn a recent ecological study among residents living around Belgian nuclear sites (the NUCABEL study), significant increased incidences of thyroid cancer were observed around the two nuclear facilities with industrial and research activities (Mol-Dessel and Fleurus), prompting further research.MethodsThe data from the NUCABEL study were reanalysed to test the hypothesis of a gradient in cancer incidence with increasing levels of exposure from these sites using three measures of surrogate exposure, being (i) residential proximity, (ii) prevailing wind directions and (iii) simulated dispersion of radioactive discharges. Single-site focussed hypothesis tests were complemented with Generalized Additive Models to estimate the exposure-response relationships.ResultsFor Mol-Dessel, the results of the focussed hypothesis tests were far from significant. For Fleurus, the p-values were much closer to significance with p = 0.05 for Bithell's Linear Risk Score using radioactive discharge estimates as surrogate.ConclusionsThe re-analyses refute an association with the nuclear facilities for the site of Mol-Dessel. For the site of Fleurus, one of Europe's major production sites of radio-iodines, the results were less conclusive and further research suggests itself.
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