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Monitoring of possible health effects of living in the vicinity of nuclear sites in Belgium. Is there an increased incidence of childhood leukaemia? Host Publication: International Radiation Protection Association (IRPA) Authors: K. Bollaerts, S. Fierens, K. Simons, J. Francart, A. Poffijn, M. Sonck, L. Van Bladel, D. Geraerts, P. Gosselin, H. Van Oyen, L. Van Eycken and A. Van Nieuwenhuyse Publication Date: May. 2012
Abstract: IntroductionThis study has been carried out at the demand of the BelgianMinister of Social Affairs and Public Health to assess, by meansof an epidemiological study at the national level, possible healtheffects of living in the vicinity of nuclear sites.ObjectivesTo investigate (1) whether there is an excess in incidence ofacute leukaemia in children aged 0ᆢ years within the 20kmproximity area around the nuclear sites in Belgium as comparedto what is expected in a reference area, and (2) whether thereis evidence for an (increasing) leukaemia risk with increasing‘surrogate’ exposure around the nuclear sites, i.e. (i) residentialproximity to the site, (ii) prevailing winds, and (iii) radio-activedischarge estimates from the plants based on mathematicalmodeling.MethodologyEcological study around the nuclear installations of Class 1 inBelgium, i.e. the nuclear power plants of Doel and Tihange,the nuclear sites of Mol and Fleurus, and the Belgian territorywithin the 20km proximity area around the nuclear power plantof Chooz (France). Cancer incidence data were retrieved fromthe Belgian Cancer Registry (BCR), a population-based registryat the national level. For this study, leukaemia data were availablefrom 2002 till 2008 for Flanders and from 2004 till 2008for Brussels and Wallonia. Age-and sex-specific population datafor this period were collected from the Federal Public Service(FPS) Economy, S.M.E.s, Self-employed and Energy. Dat a onsocio-economic status and urban-rural situation were includedas covariates.To study a possible excess of childhood leukaemia, age- andsex-standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculatedand Poisson regression was carried out. In a further step, weconducted a sensitivity analysis by varying the radius of theproximity area SIRs and RRs were then recalculated for each ofthese areas of proximity with increasing radii.The hypotheses of increasing childhood leukaemia incidencewith increasing levels of ‘surrogate’ exposure were tested bymeans of focused hypothesis tests (conditional forms), i.e.Stone’s Likelihood ratio test and Bithell Linear Risk ScoreTest. To facilitate the interpretation of the results from thefocused hypothesis tests, the ‘exposure’-response relations wereestimated and visualized using varying coefficient models.ResultsResults of the study will be presented and discussed atthe Congress.
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